Estimating Future Demand
Forecasting is the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of conditions.
The few products or services that lend themselves to easy forecasting generally enjoy an absolute level or a fairly constant trend and competition that is either nonexistent (public utilities) or stable (pure oligopolies).
In most markets, good forecasting is a key factor in success.Companies commonly prepare a macroeconomic forecast, followed by an industry forecast and then a company sales forecast.
The macroeconomic forecast projects inflation, unemployment, interest rates, consumer spending, business investment, government expenditures, and other variables.
The end result is a forecast of gross domestic product (GDP), which the firm uses, along with other environmental indicators, to forecast industry sales.
The company derives its sales forecast by assuming it will win a certain market share.
Five methods for sales forecasting are shown in Table 3.3.
It is from this historical data that certain trends are identified, providing a basis for making the educated guesses necessary to learn how the business will look in the future. Forecasting is very important for businesses, as it provides the framework for laying out your expectations for the business.
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